iPad Killers?

App store wars
So there are plenty of opportunities for Android tablets to outdo the iPad in terms of hardware, but what about software? As in the smartphone market, the use of Android “allows OEMs to enter the market without the expense of developing and maintaining an OS” according to ABI’s Victoria Fodale. Francis Sideco, principal analyst on wireless communications at iSuppli, concurred: “Given the importance of a strong applications suite to go along with the device, using Android provides [OEMs] with a built-in applications offering and developer community.”

Android should also have an advantage when it comes to the number of third-party apps available, according to Jack Gold: “Android devices will have an apps advantage, due to the sheer volume of devices and the centre of gravity it represents to developers. Within two years, I expect the number of Android apps to exceed the number of iPad apps.”

Rhoda Alexander of iSuppli agreed, but cautioned, “The mix of sizes, formats, panel, and touch technologies will present some application challenges. While the applications may be viewable across many different products and brands, they may display less optimally on some of them.”

Ian Harper, commercial/development director at Android and iOS developer Future Games of London, said it wouldn’t be too difficult to scale up existing Android apps for tablets, “but user interfaces will probably need a redesign for the larger physical screen sizes.” He added, “[The Android Market] would probably benefit from adding a new section, for tablet-only apps, exactly as Apple has done.”

The open nature of the Android Market, and the platform itself, should prove an advantage to developers and users alike. For a developer to get an app listed in Apple’s App Store, it needs to go through a complex and often lengthy approval process – with bottlenecks caused recently due to the rush to develop apps for the iPad.

Everything has to be vetted by Apple – and if it doesn’t like the content, it can prevent your app from going on sale. Some iPhone, and now iPad, users have got round this by ‘jailbreaking’ their devices to enable installation of unapproved apps, but it’s a process that requires technical know-how and runs the risk of ‘bricking’ the device and rendering it unusable.

In contrast, there is no such approval process for apps in the Android Market, although there are rules to prevent malware, spam and certain prohibited content such as pornography (as in the App Store). However, due to the open nature of the Android OS, unlike Apple’s iOS, that’s not a problem since the user is free to install apps not listed in the Android Market.

From the end-user’s perspective, the price of apps is also important. Anna Hunt, research analyst at IMS Research, noted: “Right now many of the applications specifically designed for the iPad… are actually more expensive than apps for the iPhone. This leaves an opportunity for suppliers that can offer a tablet solution that is more price competitive, both for the hardware and the content.” In addition, the Android Market has a greater proportion of free apps (57per cent, according to app store analytics firm Distimo) than Apple’s App Store (28 per cent).

Compatibility counts
Another aspect is that many consumers will want to use the same platform for their tablet and smartphone, as Canalys senior analyst Natalie Spitz pointed out: “As the number of consumers with multiple devices increases, it will also be important for pads to seamlessly integrate with existing equipment.”
Francis Sideco agreed: “If they are able to truly allow for transferability of applications between one device [and] the other (ie similar to how an eBook purchased via Kindle can be downloaded to multiple Kindles/smartphones), that would be an enticing advantage indeed.”

This compatibility is even more important for OEMs, most of which already make Android phones. For instance, Lenovo spokesperson Wu Hwa said of the firm’s new tablet: “We want the tablet PC to be compatible with our LePhone smartphone, which is why we’re using Android.”

In this respect, the recent surge in Android smartphone sales is very good news for the prospects of Android tablets. According to market research firm Canalys, worldwide shipments of Android-based smartphones grew by an incredible 886 per cent in Q2 2010. In the same
period, they represented 34 per cent of the US market – surpassing the iPhone.

So will Android have the same impact in the tablets market? Clove Technology’s Jon Love thought so… “maybe not initially, but over time as users adopt Android phones, realise their potential and then how there can be synergy and greater integration between their smartphone and tablet PC.” Creative Strategies’ Ben Bajarin agreed, “primarily because all the hardware makers need a mature operating system with a fleshed out app developer community to be competitive. I don’t see very many options to compete with Apple than Android.”

Francis Sideco commented: “iSuppli expects that the competitive landscape for these devices is currently being shaped in such a way that the near future will involve a competition between OEMs that can offer a fully interoperable, multi-device (eg tablet/smartphone) portfolio that leverages the same operating system, applications platform and services offerings. One of the fastest ways to do this is to use Android, which already has seen success in smartphones, for the tablets.”

His colleague Rhoda Alexander added, “It will offer an interesting battleground between the leading smartphone competitors and the top PC competitors, who have struggled to find success in the phone market to date.”

Where are they?
So with all these advantages, why are there still only a handful of Android tablets currently on the market? What’s the hold-up? Well, one fly in the ointment seems to be Android’s current maximum screen resolution of 854×480. While this is plenty high enough for your average smartphone display, it’s a bit of a stretch for bigger screen sizes – although at seven inches the pixel density is still marginally higher than the iPad’s 132ppi. The solution should come with Android 3.0 (Gingerbread), which reportedly supports resolutions of up to 1280×760 – ideal for large-screen tablets (and beating the iPad’s 1024×768). It will also include support for WebM video playback and is rumoured to have a revamped user interface.

So will we have to wait for Android 3.0 (due later in 2010) to see the true potential of Android tablets? Creative Strategies’ Ben Bajarin reckoned so: “I feel the use cases as well as the demands on hardware will be very different with tablets and will need a more ‘tuned’ OS for tablets. I think Gingerbread is exactly that and will include elements that will favour devices of a more computing- and touch-computing-intense hardware.”

Yet Jack Gold maintained, “I expect to see some pretty innovative 2.2 based tablets as well, with vendors putting overlays on top of Android to add features or make up any deficiencies.” And FGOL’s Ian Harper added, “No doubt a bunch of niceties will be added for tablets in 3.0, but I would not think that is a requirement for a cheap tablet. You will probably be able to upgrade to 3.0 when it comes out anyway.”

Whatever the case, the future looks bright for Android tablets. Although iSuppli only predicts a fall in market share for the iPad to 61.7 per cent by 2012, others are more optimistic for its rivals. Acer chairman JT Wang recently told Taiwan’s Economic Daily News that he expects the iPad’s share of the tablets market to fall to 20-30%, citing that from past experience an open platform usually wins over a closed one.

What do you think the impact of Android will be on the Tablet market? Let us know in the comments thread below.

Watch out for more Tablet related stories this week via the Linux User front page, or click here to see what else featured in issue 92…